What the Iowa caucuses means, condensed
Jan. 7th, 2008 12:07 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
bruortonSometime later in the nomination I'll probably talk about my own reactions, but I thought for now I'd put up a minimal, straight-up analysis as I see it.
Basically, I think there were two big take-aways from the IA caucuses last Thursday. First -- individuals aside -- Democrats won. 2/3 of the vote was Democratic, in a traditional swing state. What's more, the turnout doubled the previous record of 4 years ago. That kind of enthusiasm suggests there's the potential for a real landslide in November.
Secondly, there's a civil war brewing in the Republican party. The Christian Right has been strung along for decades now, used as grassroots strength for the corporate/neocons branches of the party -- but now they have their own candidate. The establishment will go nuts trying to slap down Huckabee, but if he can continue to do this well against such intense opposition, there's no telling where this fracture might lead.
As for individual candidates, I think that the margin combined with the turnout points to an eventual nomination for Obama, though it's by no means over yet and could still yield a real contest. On the other side, look for the establishment to close ranks behind McCain or Romney -- whichever of them can win NH -- for the battle royale with Huckabee in SC and FL.
Basically, I think there were two big take-aways from the IA caucuses last Thursday. First -- individuals aside -- Democrats won. 2/3 of the vote was Democratic, in a traditional swing state. What's more, the turnout doubled the previous record of 4 years ago. That kind of enthusiasm suggests there's the potential for a real landslide in November.
Secondly, there's a civil war brewing in the Republican party. The Christian Right has been strung along for decades now, used as grassroots strength for the corporate/neocons branches of the party -- but now they have their own candidate. The establishment will go nuts trying to slap down Huckabee, but if he can continue to do this well against such intense opposition, there's no telling where this fracture might lead.
As for individual candidates, I think that the margin combined with the turnout points to an eventual nomination for Obama, though it's by no means over yet and could still yield a real contest. On the other side, look for the establishment to close ranks behind McCain or Romney -- whichever of them can win NH -- for the battle royale with Huckabee in SC and FL.
